Fuel costs in South Africa continue to mirror global oil movements and fluctuations in the currency market. Unlike countries where pump prices change daily, South Africa uses a structured, regulated pricing system. Adjustments are made monthly under the supervision of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE).
The most recent update came into effect on 4 February 2026. While motorists welcomed a reduction in petrol and diesel prices, early market signals suggest that the current relief could be temporary. Rising international oil prices and renewed pressure on the rand may influence the next review cycle.
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February 2026 Fuel Price Update: What Changed?
In February, inland fuel prices were reduced following a review of global product averages and exchange rate trends.
Petrol 93 octane inland now costs R19.99 per litre, while Petrol 95 octane inland stands at R20.10 per litre. Diesel (0.05% sulphur) dropped by approximately 50 cents per litre at the wholesale level.
The assessment window’s softer international petroleum prices and relative currency stability primarily supported these reductions. The DMRE calculates price changes using a formula known as the Basic Fuel Price (BFP), which simulates the cost of importing refined fuel into the country.
Inland Fuel Price Comparison: January vs February 2026
| Product | January 2026 | February 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R20.64 | R19.99 | -R0.65 |
| Petrol 95 | R20.75 | R20.10 | -R0.65 |
| Diesel 0.05% S | R18.41 | R17.91 | -R0.50 |
Coastal provinces typically pay slightly less than inland regions because of lower transport and distribution costs. However, inland pricing remains the national benchmark for reporting and comparison.
Why South Africa’s Fuel Prices are so Sensitive
South Africa depends heavily on imported refined petroleum products. This makes the country vulnerable to global market shifts and currency swings. Several key drivers influence monthly price movements.
International crude oil benchmarks, especially Brent Crude, play a decisive role. When global demand rises, or geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, oil prices climb. These increases swiftly affect domestic prices because a significant portion of South Africa’s fuel is imported.
Fuel is traded globally in US dollars. A weaker rand means South Africa pays more in local currency terms even if oil prices remain unchanged. Currency volatility, therefore, has an immediate and measurable effect on pump prices.
A significant portion of the pump price is due to government levies. These include the General Fuel Levy and the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy, as well as customs duties and regulated margins. These components remain fixed unless government policy changes.
Limited local refining capacity means South Africa relies on imported finished products. International freight rates, insurance costs, storage fees, and refinery margins all influence the Basic Fuel Price.
How the Fuel Price is Decided – Understanding the Structure
Many motorists assume crude oil alone determines the pump price. In reality, the final retail cost consists of several regulated components.
The Basic Fuel Price is calculated as if the fuel were imported from global refining hubs, even when some domestic production occurs. It includes shipping, freight, insurance, and port-related costs.
Estimated Breakdown of a Petrol Pump Price
| Component | Estimated Share |
|---|---|
| Basic Fuel Price (international markets) | 45–55% |
| General Fuel Levy | 15–20% |
| Road Accident Fund Levy | 8–10% |
| Wholesale & Retail Margins | 10–15% |
| Transport & Storage | Remaining balance |
This layered structure explains why even moderate increases in Brent crude or a weaker rand can quickly raise pump prices.
Market Trends Signal Possible March Increase
Although February brought relief, international energy markets have shown renewed strength. Brent crude prices have been trading at firmer levels compared to early January averages. At the same time, the rand has experienced bouts of weakness against the US dollar.
If these trends continue throughout the pricing review window, motorists could face higher prices in March 2026.
The DMRE will release official adjustments on the first Wednesday of March. Until then, analysts rely on current international averages and exchange rate patterns to estimate potential changes.
Why Fuel Prices Matter Beyond the Pump
Fuel prices influence far more than personal transport costs. They directly affect inflation, logistics, food pricing, and overall economic stability.
Diesel is the backbone of freight transport. When diesel prices increase, logistics operators incur higher costs. Retailers and consumers often pass these expenses on, affecting the prices of food and household goods within weeks.
For many South Africans, especially in areas with limited public transport, petrol expenses make up a substantial share of monthly costs. An R1 per litre increase can significantly raise commuting expenses for regular drivers.
Energy costs contribute to headline inflation figures monitored by the South African Reserve Bank. Persistent increases in fuel prices can complicate efforts to keep inflation within target ranges and influence interest rate decisions.
South Africa’s Regulated Fuel Pricing System
South Africa operates one of the most structured fuel pricing systems globally. The DMRE publishes detailed monthly reports explaining price adjustments, including movements in international product prices and exchange rates.
This regulatory framework offers transparency and shields consumers from daily price swings common in deregulated markets. However, it also means that global economic developments are transmitted directly into domestic pricing through a fixed formula.
Expectations for the Coming Months
Fuel price trends will largely depend on three interconnected variables:
- The direction of Brent crude oil prices
- The strength or weakness of the rand against the US dollar
- Stability in global supply chains
If global oil markets remain tight and currency pressures persist, South Africa could see renewed upward adjustments in the near term. Conversely, improved exchange rate performance or lower international oil prices may moderate future increases.
For now, February’s decrease offers short-term relief. Whether that relief continues will depend on forces far beyond South Africa’s borders.